关键词: 猪肉进口；市场集中度；VAR模型；岭回归分析；预测

Abstract: This study examined the impact of pork imports on China's domestic swine industry using a VAR model, market concentration analysis, and ridge regression model, while assessing the competitive pressures faced by the domestic swine market. The findings revealed that. Firstly, China's pork import volume showed a continuous downward trend, yet a supply-demand gap persists. Secondly, the Granger causality test from the VAR model indicated that imported pork price (IPP) was a significant factor influencing price fluctuations in the domestic industrial chain. Thirdly, the analysis of pork export market concentration changed from 2017 to 2024, based on the CRn and HHI indices, demonstrated a high concentration in China's pork import market. Fourthly, the ridge regression model identified pork production, consumption, and RMB exchange rates as key determinants of pork import scale. Based on these findings, this study proposed policy recommendations, including strengthening cooperation with major supplying countries, improving income protection mechanisms for farmers, enhancing disease prevention and control systems, promoting the development of domestic swine farming, and refining pork import-export regulatory policies, to enhance the domestic swine industry's resilience against import competition.

Key words: pork imports; market concentration; VAR model; ridge regression analysis; forecast